A Deal or Death

Imagine being in a business negotiation in which the other party makes an offer, and if you don’t take their offer, you will be killed.

How would you prepare for such a negotiation?

If you did engage with someone whose negotiation strategy is “a deal or death,” you would find yourself in a position with a really bad BATNA. If you don’t do the deal, you die! And when you have a weak BATNA, you are the weaker party at the table. You need the deal more than the other party does. So, what do you do to strengthen your position?

Well, you should have prepared better, like Thomas Shelby does.

Movies and television provide great examples of negotiation scenarios which, though fictional and often unrealistic, can be great teaching tools (e.g. the bar scene in “A Bronx Tale”).

If you watch the television show “Peaky Blinders,” you’re aware of Thomas Shelby (Tommy), the head of an English gangster family, and his special abilities as a negotiator. Tommy has a discipline that he takes into all of his negotiations: thorough preparation. In fact, fans of the show know that Tommy rarely enters a negotiation where he has not already thought through, and planned, for the outcome he wants.

Tommy goes to see Alfie Solomons, another gangster who bootlegs liquor, to try and build a partnership. (Spoiler alert for those who have not watched the episode yet!) Alfie has a guiding principle in his negotiations: “a deal or death.” If you don’t agree with Alfie’s deal, he kills you. Alfie proposes a “partnership” in which he gets 100% of Tommy’s business, or he will shoot Tommy. Tommy refuses the deal.

Tommy knows this is Alfie’s way (he has already researched Alfie and his business), so he weakened Alfie’s BATNA before he sat down to negotiate. On the way to meet Alfie in the warehouse, Tommy planted an explosive on a nearby barrel of run. Tommy tells Alfie the explosive will be detonated by one of Tommy’s men if Tommy does not come out by 7 pm. If the explosive is detonated in the warehouse full of rum, there will be nothing left of anyone in the building.

Alfie responds by testing Tommy’s BATNA, reminding Tommy that he will die in the explosion as well. Tommy says he does not care, and Alfie knows that is true; Tommy does not fear death. And why should Tommy care? If he doesn’t take Alfie’s deal, he dies anyway!

Now the phrase “a deal or death” has a different meaning for Alfie because Tommy has altered the strength of Alfie’s BATNA. If Alfie doesn’t take Tommy’s deal, Alfie, and everyone in the warehouse, dies in the explosion. Tommy now leverages the weakness of Alfie’s BATNA, and calmly negotiates Alfie down from 100% to 35%.

Though it is fiction, the scene provides a great example of why we should not underestimate the power of having a strong BATNA, or weakening the other side’s BATNA, to improve our bargaining power at the table. The strongest party at the table is the one who cares least about the deal. In the end, Tommy convinced Alfie that Tommy would accept death instead of a bad deal. Alfie now had to make the deal good enough for Tommy to keep them all alive.

You can watch the negotiation unfold here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OPZA7vHZAY